文章摘要:A new method for estimating the n (50 or 100) -year return-period waveheight, namely, the extreme waveheight expected to occur in n years, is presented on the basis of the maximum entropy principle. The main points of the method are as follows: (1) based on the Hamihonian principle, a maximum entropy probability density function for the extreme waveheight H, f(H)= aH^γe-^βH4 is derived from a Lagrangian function subject to some necessary and rational constraints; (2) the parameters α,β, and γ in the function me expressed in terms of the mean H, variance V=(H-H^-)^2—— and bias B = (H - H^-)^3——; and (3) with H^-, V and B estimated from observed data, the n-year return-period wave height Hn is computed in accordance with the formula 1/1-F(Hn)=n, where F( Hn ) is defined as F( Hn ) = ∫0^Hnf(H)dH .Examples of estimating the 50 and 100-year return period waveheighls by the present method and by some currently used method from observed data acquired from two hydrographic stations are given. A comparison of the estimated results shows that the present method is superior to the others. |